Through its Research Department, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) launched a call for proposals to fund research on the demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean—one of the most profound transformations facing the region. With fertility rates below replacement level, the region is aging rapidly before reaching high-income status, placing mounting pressure on pension, health, and long-term care systems. Through this initiative, the IDB seeks to generate rigorous, policy-relevant evidence across six key areas: pensions, health and care services, female labor force participation and active aging, savings and capital markets, public services (education, housing, mobility), and territorial heterogeneity and migration.
IMMIGRATION AND FERTILITY IN CHILE
The proposal led by Associate Professor Patricio Domínguez from the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile was selected under this call to examine the effects of immigration on fertility in Chile. The project focuses on a unique demographic phenomenon: the country has experienced one of the steepest fertility declines globally—from 2.7 to 1.16 children per woman between 2000 and 2023—while simultaneously receiving an unprecedented immigration wave that raised the foreign-born population from 1.2% to 8% over the same period.
Using administrative birth records linked to the 2017 and 2024 national censuses, the study analyzes not only the direct contribution of immigrant women to national birth rates but also whether immigration influences native Chilean fertility through social and economic channels. The research employs advanced econometric methods, including instrumental variables, to address endogeneity in migrant location choices.
The study’s results will be published by the IDB and will inform public debate and policy design on how immigration shapes demographic dynamics and fiscal sustainability amid rapid population aging.
